TURN VALUE CHECK by Stoxtrader

by Stoxtrader

When in position against aggressive opponents, it is profitable to
check the turn with marginal/good hands like second or third pair.
Although you may be giving a free card the gains outweigh the costs
against the right opponents. There are three sources of value in the
Turn Value Check: avoid a check-raise when behind; avoid folding the
best hand when your opponent check-raises as a bluff or semi-bluff
(which is a disaster); induce a river bluff when ahead.

A few
counter arguements: giving a free card to a player who would have folded
to a turn bet (depends on pot size) checking behind when someone would
have called a turn bet with weaker hand.

Example 1: avoid a check-raise when behind You open-raise 9h8c on the Button. Only the
aggressive big blind calls. The flop comes: Td, 9d, 3s, you bet, and he
calls. The turn is a Qh. If he checks, you should check. Because of the
coordinated board and an aggressive opponent, you would have to call
down if he had check-raised. However, sometimes when he check-raises,
your opponent will have you beat. Checking this turn gets you to
showdown cheaply when behind, and gives you a free card.

Example 2:
avoid folding the best hand when your opponent check-raises as a bluff
or semi-bluff You open-raise 6h6c in the Cutoff. Only the aggressive
big blind calls. The flop comes: Jd, Td, 3s, you bet, and he calls. The
turn is a Kd. If he checks, you should check . Because the flop
contains three overcards to your pair, you probably should fold if your
opponent had raised. However, an aggressive opponent may check-raise as
a semi-bluff. Checking this turn avoids giving him a chance to push you
off the best hand.

Example 3: induce a river bluff when ahead You open-raise Th8h on the Button. Only the aggressive big blind calls. The
flop comes: Qd, Tc, 5d, you bet, and he calls. The turn is a 4h. If he
checks, you should check. An aggressive opponent will bet almost any
river card with a hand like 98 or even King-high, allowing you to gain
an extra bet. Obviously, all these factors favor checking against
aggressive opponents. Against passive opponents, however, you should be
more inclined to bet because, if check-raised, you are likely behind
and should fold. Also, passive opponents may “chase” draws with few
outs or call down with weak hands like King-high. Then, you should bet
your hands for value. Although giving a free card is a concern, against
the right opponent the benefits from checking outweigh the cost of a
free-card. Even if your opponent has 6 outs, you are giving him a 12.5%
(=1/ chance to win. Most heads-up pots will be 4BB on the turn, thus
giving a free card to 6 outs costs 1/2 of a BB (4BB×1/. Since your
opponent will miss his 6-outer 87.5% of the time, if you induce a bluff
57%when he misses, checking the turn is break-even ((0.875*0.57)*1BB=0.5BB). Although some opponents will not bluff the
river 57% of the time (but some will even more), when you add the value
gained from: avoiding a check-raise when behind; avoiding laying down
the best hand to a check-raise bluff or semi-bluff, and the times you
benefit from the free card, it is clear that checking is correct
against aggressive opponents. If the pot is much bigger than 4BB, you
should be more inclined to bet. You should also be more inclined to bet with a weaker made hand or as abluff, because it is easier to fold to a
check-raise. Also, with a strong draw (8+ outs), you should bet because
your opponent only needs to fold greater than 17.5% (or less with more
than 8 outs) for betting to be +EV. However, if check-raised, you
obviously should not fold.